
The IIP numbers announced today were higher than consensus of 13.5%, contributed significantly by growth in manufacturing at over 19% which contributes to 80% of the index weight. The point to be noted here is that we still are benefiting from the base effect as until June 2009, the IIP numbers were flat year-on-year. If one observes the IIP data on their absolute number, the numbers have shown a consistent decline over last three months (March had some exceptional spending on certain projects).
With the base effect expected to go away in the June-July IIP numbers, combined with lower absolute numbers, the IIP will look lower on both YoY and MoM figures which may define sentiment.
Also inflation refuses to come down, and RBI will now look to aggressively hike rates as the latest food inflation numbers have again started to go up.
In this rising interest rate scenario coupled with IIP data that may have peaked, what trigger shall be there for markets to go up?
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